Commentary - the long view

The 2009 mayoral primary featured three repeat candidates returning from the 2005 primary. A comparison of the two is revealing.

..	2005	2009	% Change
Cardinal	643	547	-14.9
Longrie	725	843	16.3
Rossbach	771	1457	89.0
Other	55	1408	2460.0
All	2194	4255	93.9

Here is one interpretation:
Four years of bloodletting led to doubling the turnout. Twice as many voters participating had a relatively small effect on support for Mr. Cardinal, who has been more or less invisible for the last four years. Likewise, there was a relatively small effect on support for Ms. Longrie, who has been anything but invisible.

On the other hand, doubling the turnout more or less doubled support for Mr. Rossbach, and 'anybody but Longrie' skyrocketed by 2460 percent.

So, the same number of voters like Ms. Longrie, no matter how many people vote; while the same proportion of voters like Mr. Rossbach. Look for the Longrie campaign to try to suppress turnout in the general election, while Mr. Rossbach (whom I support) will be working on increasing participation.

Stephan